DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/08 10:46

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Higher

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures 
are 4 to 5 cents higher; wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures 
are 4 to 5 cents higher; wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents higher. The U.S. stock 
market is weaker with the S&P off 45 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 8 points 
lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed with crude up .40 
and natural gas off .11. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are 
mixed with gold up $6.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with quiet range-bound action 
pre-report with slightly firmer spread trade. On the WASDE report today, trade 
is looking for corn carryout at 1.266 billion bushels (bb) on a range of 1.20 
bb to 1.335 bb, with world stocks to decline slightly from last month. Ethanol 
margins remain range-bound with the weekly report showing production off by 
28,000 barrels per day (bpd), and stocks off 25,000 with a major producer 
announcing reduced runs coming forward. Crop development will continue to be 
watched with drier weather short-term in Argentina, and early double-crop 
planting continuing to lag an ideal pace. The daily export wire was quiet after 
Monday's action. Basis has another round of softening in the central to the 
west but remains above average. On the March chart, support is at the $6.76 
20-day moving average, which we are right at going into the report with the 
recent high at $6.88 3/4 still stiff resistance above the market.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with South American 
weather a little more supportive in pre-report action with spread action a bit 
stronger. Meal is narrowly mixed, and oil is 55 to 65 points lower. The daily 
export wire will need to stay active, but we have been quiet to start the week. 
On the report, trade is looking for domestic carryout at 211 million bushels 
(mb) on range of 176 mb to 230 mb, with world stocks down slightly from last 
month. Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to pick up soon as 
harvest expands, but it remains slower than usual amid showers to the north, 
while Argentina will be watched for further deterioration short-term, along 
with southern Brazil keeping support under the market. New crop has gained 
slightly versus corn, but likely not enough to swing acres at this point. Basis 
remains mostly sideways near-term. March chart support is at the $15.17 20-day 
moving average, which we tested yesterday, with the Upper Bollinger Band at 
$15.48.

WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents higher at midday with the Chicago contract 
taking the lead at the upper end of the recent range with firmer spread action. 
The Southern Plains will warm up with the more significant precipitation 
remaining to the east with more potential the second week, while the west 
continues to struggle, with little change to the Black Sea short-term. Matif 
wheat values are a bit softer this morning limiting upside. On the report, 
expectations are for carryout at 576 mb, on a range of 557 mb to 612 mb, with 
world stocks up slightly. On the chart, KC March has support at the 20-day 
moving average at $8.57, which we are solidly above, with the recent high at 
$8.95 and resistance with the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.98.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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