DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/16 11:40

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Firmer midday trade is seen with soybeans leading the way upon trade optimism

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 360. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 19 points lower. 
Energies are mostly higher with crude up 0.40. Livestock trade is firmer with 
nearby hogs limit up. Precious metals are higher with gold up $2.50.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 4 cents higher at midday with spillover support mostly from 
beans. The range has been a penny lower to just over a nickel higher. Last 
night news that trade negotiations with China were expected and optimism toward 
buying beans helped spark a quick 20 cent rally in beans. Market bears argue 
this is still part of the game, and the big bearish supply side market 
fundamentals are taking prices lower on its own. The lower prices are finding 
the demand, not some good will toward negotiations. The market knows China 
likes U.S. beans. The weekly ethanol report yesterday was mixed with production 
down 28,000 barrels per day, with stocks up 94,000 barrels, with margins 
continuing to stay narrow. Corn basis will likely continue to fade with more 
harvest activity building with the advanced crop and with the higher board. The 
weekly export sales were good at 339,000 tons of old crop and 1.044 million 
tons of new. On the December chart futures have support at the $3.66 low scored 
on Monday as follow-through selling after the bearish WASDE report. Resistance 
is at the $3.88 1/2 two-month high. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 20 to 27 cents higher at midday, meal is up $5 to $6 and 
soybean oil is up 30 points. Some of this strength is short covering and chart 
related with shorts that piled on after the bearish USDA report on Friday, 
getting out with losses. We moved above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, 
in between $887-889 on November beans, which turned the chart positive. The 
optimism toward China demand is the talk, but I think we need to expect a long 
game. The weekly export sales were okay at 133,400 tons of old crop and 571,600 
tons of new. Meal sales were 207,200 tons of old and 147,300 tons of new with 
bean oil 4,800 tons of old and 300 of new. On the November chart support is at 
the $8.89 10-day, then down at the $8.51 one-month low printed on Monday. 
Resistance is the $8.99 1/2 early morning high then the $9.22 2-month high.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 8 to 13 cents higher at midday with trade looking to reverse 
from the post-report weakness. Spill over support from the row crops along with 
a good weekly sales report is noted for the higher trade.  Spring wheat harvest 
should continue to move along at a good clip. The strong US dollar is keeping 
the U.S. less competitive on the world market with the ongoing issues with 
Middle Eastern importers focusing on the Black Sea for origination. Matif wheat 
solidly higher this morning, giving us support as well. Australia remains on 
the dry side with the crop pace ahead of normal as well with some relief for 
some areas. The weekly export sales were good at 803,000 tons giving the market 
support. On the December KC chart we have support at the low printed yesterday 
at $$5.60 3/4 then the 100-day at 5.55, with resistance the 10-day at 5.89. We 
are flirting with the 20-day at midday which is at $5.76. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(BAS)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.